Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.

Summary Map by Earth Commission/Globaïa: The location of climate tipping elements in the cryosphere (blue), biosphere (green) and ocean/atmosphere (orange), and global warming levels their tipping points will likely be triggered at. Pins are colored according to our central global warming threshold estimate being below 2°C, i.e. within the Paris Agreement range (red, circles); between 2 and 4°C, i.e. accessible with current policies (pink, diamonds); and 4°C and above (purple, triangles).

Experts from The Earth Commission, a global team of scientists convened by Future Earth with the mission to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet, contributed to the research, including lead author David Armstrong McKay, and co-authors Tim Lenton, Johan Rockström, and Ricarda Winkelmann.

The international research team synthesized evidence for tipping points, their temperature thresholds, timescales, and impacts from a comprehensive review of over 200 papers published since 2008, when climate tipping points were first rigorously defined. They have increased the list of potential tipping points from nine to sixteen. 

Read the full article and access the paper here on the Earth Commission website:

The research will be discussed at a major conference, “Tipping Points: from climate crisis to positive transformation” at the University of Exeter 12-14 September.

An accepted version of the paper (i.e. after peer review, but before any journal formatting or copy-editing and final corrections) is available for free here.