New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.

The report is co-authored by over sixty leading natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission – an international science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance. The report is led by Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Prof. Xuemei Bai, and Prof. Diana Liverman and builds on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed. 

Findings: The Safe and Just Space is shrinking

This new paper identifies the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for – and sets out the paths to reach and stay in this Space. 

The Earth System Boundaries published last year can be seen as the “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, within which the Earth systems can remain stable and resilient, and people can be safe from harm. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing us what the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty. This is the first time scientists have quantified safety (a stable planet) and justice (people being protected from harm) in the same units – demonstrating that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. The paper builds on fundamental ideas of Earth System Justice, published in Nature Sustainability and Environmental Politics. 

In this new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050, and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate specifically they found that, if significant changes aren’t made now, by 2050 there will be no Safe and Just Space left. That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary. Earth systems face the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points which would cause further significant harm to people around the world – unless energy, food and urban systems are urgently transformed.

They also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

The research also looked at where on the planet the Safe and Just boundaries have been breached, and overlayed this with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change that impacts the health of people and ecosystems – but everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk.

Joyeeta Gupta, former co-chair of the Earth Commission, and Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, said: “We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth. Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don’t have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.” 

Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam, said: “For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive. This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. It looks at the risk for further decline of the Earth system, the harm communities are experiencing as a result, but also seeks to identify how resources need to be fairly distributed. Communities, poor and rich, across the world are already vulnerable and will become more exposed – but we have a window to act now and change course.”

Wendy Broadgate, Executive Director for the Earth Commission and Global Hub Director at Future Earth, said: “Addressing justice must be at the heart of our response to the planetary crisis. We need to run our economies and societies differently to live within the Safe and Just Space. The Earth Commission’s work highlights living within the safe boundaries of the planet, and incorporating justice, is not possible without addressing inequalities and ensuring everyone has the essential resources for a dignified life. This paper – synthesised by 65 natural and social scientists from over 20 countries – provides a scientific foundation for the Safe and Just Space and the transformations that are required to reach it.”

Read more and access the full release on the Earth Commission website.

Artwork by Superflux, for Earth Commission/Global Commons Alliance