Researchers involved with the annual Global Carbon Budget 2024 warn that urgent action is needed as fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, locking in higher temperatures and inching the planet ever closer to critical climate thresholds.

Despite repeated calls to cut greenhouse gases, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached an unprecedented high in 2024, according to new research from the Global Carbon Project.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected at 37.4 billion tonnes this year, a 0.8% increase compared to 2023. Total global CO₂ emissions, including land-use changes like deforestation, are expected to reach 41.6 billion tonnes, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.

With emissions levels driving the world closer to surpassing 1.5°C of warming, the study estimates that at current rates, this critical threshold could be crossed within six years. 

Researchers from the Global Carbon Project, which produces the annual report and is a Future Earth global research network, said the lack of progress toward a peak in fossil CO₂ emissions is a great concern.

“Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, lead author from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “World leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”

While fossil fuel emissions have risen steadily over the past decade, emissions from land-use changes have slightly declined. Yet both categories are set to increase this year, with severe droughts exacerbating deforestation fires in regions affected by the unusually strong 2023-2024 El Niño event.

Despite rising global emissions, the report highlights some regional progress. Emissions from the United States and the European Union are projected to decline, while renewables and electric vehicle adoption continue to expand.

“The latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time,” said Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia’s (UEA) School of Environmental Sciences.

However, the researchers emphasized that broader, faster action is needed worldwide to reverse the upward trajectory.

“The Global Carbon Budget is more than just tracking greenhouse gas emissions—it’s a vital tool that helps shape real-world decisions. It’s a trusted benchmark to measure our collective progress, helps countries set their priorities, and bridges the gap between science and policy, ensuring that decisions are grounded in evidence,” said Wendy Broadgate, Swedish Global Hub Director and interim Executive Director at Future Earth. 

The 2024 Global Carbon Budget is a comprehensive assessment from an international team of over 120 scientists. The research team included the University of Exeter, UAE, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world.  

The 2024 edition was published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

• Total CO₂ emissions – the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions – have plateaued in the past decade.
• The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is expected to reach 422.5 ppm in 2024, 52% above pre-industrial levels, heightening the risk of dangerous warming.
• Many countries have succeeded in reducing their fossil carbon dioxide emissions or slowing down their growth but not sufficient to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.
• Besides removals through land-use change, current deliberate Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) not based on vegetation offsets a negligible fraction of fossil CO2 emissions in 2023.
• The land and ocean CO2 sinks combined continued to take up around half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted to the atmosphere, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.

Press conference: 

Science Media Centre online news briefings will be held as follows:

• UN Press Conference & launch of Global Carbon Budget 2024. Location: Press  conference 2 (Natavan), Area C. Blue Zone COP 29, 13th November. 10.30-11.00 
• UNFCCC side event. Action with impact: Critical enablers for fulfilling national  commitments. Location: SIDE EVENT 5, blue Zone, COP 29, 14th November. 15.00-16.30 
• Coalition of Rainforest Nations Pavilion. Climate Science: The 2024 Global Carbon  Budget and The Global South. Location: Coalition of Rainforest Nations Pavilion, Blue  Zone, COP29, 15th November. 16.00-16.45 
• IPCC Pavilion event. Reconciling anthropogenic land-use emissions. Location: Science  for Climate Action Pavilion, Blue Zone COP 29, 11:00 – 12:15, Saturday 16th November 

Contact: pressoffice@exeter.ac.uk