At SB64, Future Earth co-hosted an event highlighting how climate change is triggering additional emissions that are not fully captured in current climate accounting, creating a gap between projections and reality.

As climate change accelerates, scientists are warning that emissions triggered by a warming planet itself could complicate efforts to meet global climate goals.

During a side event at the 64th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SB64), researchers explored how processes like thawing permafrost, methane release from wetlands, and more frequent wildfires are adding new sources of greenhouse gas emissions. 

The session “Warming-induced emissions: sources, impact on Paris goals and human systems, and management options” underscored both scientific and policy challenges. Future Earth, Spark Climate Solutions, Woodwell Climate Research Center, and the Environmental Defense Fund organized the event as part of Future Earth’s mission to bring robust, policy-relevant science into international decision-making on how climate risks are assessed and addressed.

Speaker Brian Buma from the Environmental Defense Fund explained the importance of accounting for the emissions produced by these environmental processes. By omitting them from future projections, we could be moving much faster towards Paris Agreement limits on global warming than previously thought.

Speaker Kate Dooley of the University of Melbourne highlighted that current greenhouse gas budgets focus mostly on human-driven emissions, while warming-driven emissions are often not fully captured. She noted how the Australian bushfires released an estimated 800 million tonnes of CO₂, but only a limited share was reflected in national reporting, illustrating the need for better monitoring and accounting.

Matti Goldberg of the Woodwell Climate Research Center, discussed the challenge of connecting emerging science with the UNFCCC process, including how these emissions could inform future global assessments. Satellites are increasingly able to monitor and pinpoint sources at specific sites, he said, but widespread natural emissions are harder to track and report on. 

The event highlighted that warming-induced emissions are no longer a theoretical concern for the future but an emerging reality that could influence the pace and scale of climate change in the coming decades. As evidence grows, scientists are calling for these feedbacks to be more systematically incorporated into climate assessments, emissions accounting, and long-term planning.

Participants emphasized that understanding and managing climate risks requires looking beyond direct human emissions to the broader Earth system responses already underway. As the UNFCCC process advances toward future global assessments and climate action milestones, strengthening the integration of Earth system science into decision-making will be essential. By convening researchers and policymakers at SB64, Future Earth helped ensure that the latest scientific insights are part of the conversation shaping a more informed and effective global response to climate change.