A new paper published in the journal One Earth argues that today’s dominant climate and biodiversity scenarios fall short to address the scale and complexity of global crises.

The researchers, including members of Future Earth’s flagship initiative, the Earth Commission, say many widely used models rely on the same economic systems, governance structures, and assumptions that contributed to current environmental and social challenges. As a result, these models often focus on incremental change rather than the systemic transformations needed for a safe and just future.

“If we want pathways that work, we need tools that can explore different economic models, different power structures, and different relationships between people and nature, not just different technologies,” says lead author and Earth Commissioner Laura Pereira, a professor at the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa and the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

The authors argue for a new generation of “integrated transformative scenarios” that bring together climate, biodiversity, and equity goals while incorporating diverse knowledge systems and perspectives from the Global South, Indigenous Peoples, and local communities.

The paper also proposes a Global South-led scenarios secretariat, more innovative modelling approaches, and stronger links between sustainability science, economics, and justice-focused research.

Read the full paper in One Earth.